Texas Democrats seem to be getting a head start on the 2026 Midterm elections, with some urging voters to mobilize their neighbors.
While Texas Democrats have seen growth in Black and Latino populations and major gains in urban centers like Houston, Dallas, and Austin, statewide races have remained Republican strongholds that Democrats dream of flipping.
However, a new push by Blue Texas, a coalition comprising the Texas Majority PAC, the Texas Democratic Party, and county parties, aims to change that by building what they call the “largest Democratic voter mobilization effort” in state history, through early contact with voters via mail and text.
“In previous cycles in Texas, we have often had a problem where we started talking to voters two months before election day,” said Katherine Fisher, director of Texas Majority PAC. “We’re starting right now. We intend to invest significantly in canvassing efforts, time, money and effort on contacting those hard-to-reach voters.”
What do voting trends show?
Voting trends over the last few election cycles reveal why Democrats might feel close to the finish line. Still, Texas has remained a Republican stronghold in the past five years, with the GOP winning every statewide race, including:
- 2020 Presidential: Donald Trump 52.1% vs. Joe Biden 46.5%
- 2022 Governor: Greg Abbott 54.8% vs. Beto O’Rourke 43.8%
- 2024 Presidential: Donald Trump 56.2% vs. Kamala Harris 42.4%
- 2024 U.S. Senate: Ted Cruz 53.0% vs. Colin Allred 44.6%
However, in 2018, fueled by backlash to then-President Trump, Democrats flipped two congressional seats and 12 state house seats and nearly ousted Ted Cruz, who edged out Beto O’Rourke by just under three points. Turnout surged to more than 50%, which was unheard of for a midterm in Texas.
Since then, enthusiasm has been uneven. Blue Texas hopes to break this cycle of short-lived surges. The coalition is asking why voters sat out in 2024 and what would motivate them to show up next year.
More than just a push?
At a recent organizing rally in Houston, where U.S. Senate candidate Colin Allred fired up supporters for his run to unseat Cruz in 2026 and criticized Gov. Greg Abbott’s redistricting agenda, volunteers and community leaders reflected on what it would take to change Texas’ trajectory.
Rita Runnels, a retiree with Texas AFT (American Federation of Teachers), said the Obama era once galvanized Black voters, but since then, people started losing faith in the electoral system.
“After the Obama era, Trump came along…they [Black voters] thought, ‘We’ll never win again, so there’s no need for me to vote. My vote doesn’t count.’ And we wanna make sure that they know your vote matters,” Runnels said. “My push this year is to get the Blacks out of the community, away from their safe environment and start voting again. Get back out there. We did it with Obama. We could do it again.”
Allred echoed that sentiment.
“I have met so many people who feel like maybe nothing will change,” he said. “I recognize that there’s also a process of overcoming a certain amount of cynicism, that anything can change. I wanna try and show folks that there’s real hope that we can do something really big together.”
Many understand the structural barriers. Texas has some of the strictest voting rules in the country. Meanwhile, Abbott has called for a mid-decade congressional redistricting in a Texas Legislature special session set to begin July 21.
Democrat leaders, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, warned rally attendees that Republicans are “trying to remove all Black and Brown districts throughout the state of Texas, but particularly right here in the Houston area,” making fair representation harder.
But some see opportunity even in these grim tactics.
“If you gerrymander these districts, you might just dummy-mander them,” Allred said. “Our answer’s gonna be ‘Challenge accepted.’ We’ll beat you in that gerrymandered district, too.”
Issues that resonate with Houstonians
What could finally tip the scales? For many Black voters, it’s pocketbook issues and rights “under assault.” Tamara Kilonzi, a retired Houston resident, wants to see Democrats fight harder for DEI programs, abortion rights and health care for Black folks.
“I lost my sister-in-law because doctors treated her differently,” she said. “It’s because they’re treating Caucasian women differently from African Americans…I wanna see them [Democrats] bring DEI back, fight for women’s rights and restore funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities.”
Jolanda Jones, a state representative from Houston’s Third Ward, put it bluntly: “The world is run by those who show up. If you live in a city of 10,000 people and five people show up to vote, then five people decide who governs over you. So we, as Democrats, have to figure that out.”
Still, some remain cautious. Kay Shepard, a precinct chair in Harris County, is apprehensive about Democratic leadership in the state.
“I don’t know if we have the leaders,” Shepard said. “I’m not really sure if I’m impressed with Colin [Allred]. I know there are other people running, but I don’t know who the Texas Democratic Party is going with. I’m a strong Democrat, so I come to everything I can.”
