Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo’s seven-year tenure blended ambition, controversy and leadership during Houston’s toughest crises. Credit: Lina Hidalgo’s office

When Lina Hidalgo shocked Texas politics in 2018 by unseating long-time Republican County Judge Ed Emmett, she was a political unknown. 

At 27, the Colombian-born immigrant ran on a progressive platform that resonated with voters eager for change. Her victory flipped the balance of power on the Harris County Commissioners Court and thrust her into the national spotlight as one of the youngest and most visible Democratic leaders in the state.

Seven years later, Hidalgo has announced she will not seek reelection in 2026, but added she would like to be elected to a political position in the future.

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“I think that with everything I’ve been through, I have learned so much about how to be an elected official and make it sustainable,” she said.

Her decision leaves open one of the most powerful county seats in the country: The chief executive of Harris County, the most populous county in Texas and the third-most populous in the United States. 

With her exit, both parties now face a reshaped political landscape.

A polarizing legacy

Hidalgo’s tenure has been marked by ambition, controversy and high-stakes policymaking. She championed criminal justice reform, expanded early childhood and social service programs and clashed with state and local Republicans over pandemic restrictions and voting access.

Supporters credit her with decisive leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 winter storm, and repeated flooding crises. Critics fault her for feuding with fellow Democrats, pushing costly social initiatives during budget shortfalls and taking extended leave for mental health struggles.

Without Hidalgo on the ballot, Republicans lose their strongest polarizing target in 2026. Pictured: Mark Jones. Credit: Rice University

She would have faced an uphill battle in being re-elected during the next election cycle, which would have allowed the Republicans to reclaim the Harris County Judge seat. 

“Her being gone makes it easier for Democrats to retain the county judge position,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University. “Hidalgo is a very polarizing figure, with very high negatives among Republicans and Independents. She relies almost exclusively on Democratic voters for her favorable opinion ratings. Had she been the candidate in 2026, that would’ve improved the odds for Republicans.”

Without Hidalgo on the ballot, Republicans lose the ability to run against a well-defined and divisive figure.

“It is a steep hill because this is a midterm year with a Republican President in the White House whose approval ratings are falling,” Jones added. “It makes it even harder [for Republicans] because Hidalgo was a polarized enough figure that you could campaign against her.”

The Democratic field: Familiar names, high stakes

With Hidalgo out, the Democratic primary is now the decisive contest. Harris County has trended blue in recent cycles, though often narrowly and analysts expect the 2026 midterms to favor Democrats given national headwinds.

Democrats must focus on ground game, precinct chairs and voter outreach to hold power. Pictured: Brandon Rottinghaus. Credit: University of Houston

High-profile contenders are already lining up. Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker is considered a strong potential candidate. Parker, a moderate Democrat with broad name recognition, could consolidate support across Independents and even some Republicans. Other names in circulation include City Council Member Letitia Plummer and Orlando Sanchez, a former Houston City Council member and treasurer for Harris County.

“Democrats have to find candidates who can speak to the voters’ issues,” University of Houston Political Science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said of the Democrats’ campaign strategy. “They need to invest in the infrastructure of the party and that means making sure they’ve got the right personnel in place to be able to execute their electoral goals and campaign tactics on the ground, filling precinct chairs and making sure they’ve got the ground game covered.”

The Republican challenge

For Republicans, Hidalgo’s departure eliminates a favorite target. Their messaging for years has centered around crime, fiscal management and portraying the judge as out of step with mainstream Harris County voters. Without her, they would have to build a case against a new Democratic nominee.

“It will be more difficult for the Republicans if somebody like Annise Parker [former Mayor of Houston] gets the nomination because of her experience and because she’s proven to be a competent administrator,” said Dr. David Branham, a professor of Social Sciences at UHD.

Possible GOP contenders include Orlando Sanchez, former Houston city council member and county treasurer, Marty Lancton, president of the Houston Firefighters Union and Aliza Dutt, mayor of Piney Point Village.

Despite challenges, Harris County’s demographics and Trump’s unpopularity keep Democrats in a favorable position. Pictured: Richard Murray. Credit: The Women’s Institute of Houston

UH professor emeriti Richard Murray is of the opinion that despite the Democratic Party’s issues, conditions are favorable for them this year.

“Even in a bad democratic year, which was the case last November, the Democrats still won the major countywide offices and they’ll do considerably better in 2026,” Murray said. “If Kamala Harris had been elected narrowly, the Democrats would be in trouble here in the upcoming election. She was a weak candidate in Texas and in Harris County. To be blunt, she’s history now in this county, and Trump is just the whole deal and this is not a good county for Republicans. The Republicans were loath to admit it, but Trump locally is the worst thing that could happen to them.”

Still, Republicans can lean on issues that have historically resonated, particularly crime.

What’s at stake?

The county judge wields significant influence as the presiding officer of Commissioners Court, the body that controls Harris County’s $2.7 billion budget. While the judge has only one vote among five members, the position sets the agenda and serves as the county’s public face, particularly during disasters such as hurricanes and floods.

“Harris County deals with crime, homelessness, flood, resilience, public safety,” said UHD Social Sciences professor, Dr. Bill Flores. “You gotta be able to deal with all those things. It’s a balancing act because both Republicans and Democrats tend to make promises to their constituents that somebody else has to pay the bill for.”

Hidalgo transformed the role into a platform for progressive policies, from guaranteed income pilots to childcare initiatives. But experts suggest the next judge could return to consensus-driven governance. 

“We could see, with a new county judge, a return to the way the county was run under former Judge Ed Emmett, a less partisan institution and more focused on issues that generally don’t elicit as much partisan divisions,” Jones added. “So, things like streets, roads, parks and public safety, moving away from the more conflictual issues that polarize…For a county judge to be effective, they need to be able to work effectively with the four commissioners.”

For residents, the election’s stakes are clear: Who will guide the county through mounting challenges of crime, affordability, climate resilience and strained budgets?

Murray emphasized, “The most important and unpredictable variable is the economy…most voters have not reacted very well. They don’t think the first eight months of Trump’s presidency have shown any improvement in their economic situation. The downside risk for Trump is much greater than the upside.”

Shifting demographics, uncertain turnout

The party must also balance coalition politics. Harris County’s demographic trends favor Democrats, though not overwhelmingly. The white share of the electorate is slowly declining, Latino voters are rising and African American voters remain the most loyal bloc in Democratic primaries. These shifts, however, are incremental rather than transformative. A successful candidate must capture at least two of these three groups to win, Jones said.

Turnout patterns will likely decide the outcome. Midterms traditionally favor Republicans, since Democratic voters, especially young people and Latinos, are less consistent participants. But Trump’s return to the ballot, even indirectly, could re-energize Democratic turnout, the experts said.

Historically, the county judge seat drew little public attention outside of natural disasters. Hidalgo changed that. Her frequent clashes with Commissioners Court colleagues, high-profile initiatives and national media made Harris County politics a focal point. Murray attributed the renewed attention to Hidalgo’s conduct in court.

“My guess is that the feuding on the court and her sometimes pretty emotional reactions,” he said. “She was fighting with people who would normally be her allies, like Commissioner Briones and that made running for the office again and potentially serving another four years, increasingly unattractive. Her emotional fragility made running much more difficult for her to get through the primary.”

What’s next?

Candidate filing for the 2026 primaries opens in November and closes in December. With no incumbent, the Democratic race is expected to be crowded and is likely to head for a runoff. 

“It’s a wide-open race now,” Murray said. “It will be a very high-profile race and over very quickly because we vote the first week in March. And that to me is the decisive election.”

I cover education, housing, and politics in Houston for the Houston Defender Network as a Report for America corps member. I graduated with a master of science in journalism from the University of Southern...