While the Jan. 31 runoffs for the 18th Congressional District seat chose Christian Menefee as its representative, Houston’s historically Black neighborhoods are still dealing with the consequences of Texas’ mid-decade congressional redistricting.
Voters say the back-to-back elections tied to the TX-18 seat, from the January runoffs to the upcoming March primaries, created confusion for them. It also contributed to a stretch in which the district effectively lacked consistent representation in Congress for almost a year.
For Felisa Wilson, a retired military veteran, the election timing has had a huge impact.
“The district that you were in for decades, grew up in, that represents you and your people, your friends, your family, your church, all of a sudden…you’re out of your district, or you don’t know,” said Wilson. “It throws everyone into confusion. It angers people because it was unnecessary.”
Her experience mirrors what a January 2026 report from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs states.
The researchers’ analysis of the 2025 mid-decade redistricting cycle said three Houston-area congressional districts, TX-9, TX-18, and TX-29, were “dramatically altered” during the 2025 redistricting process.
What do the new maps say?
Under the new map, only 26% of residents in the new TX-18 previously lived in the old district, while 64% are being shifted in from TX-9, a wholesale population change that researchers say has major implications for voter awareness and turnout.
The disruption is compounded by timing.
Voters in TX-18 are being asked to participate in a special election runoff under the old district boundaries, followed just weeks later by March primaries conducted under new boundaries that “bear little resemblance” to the previous map, according to political scientist Mark Jones, a professor of Rice University and a co-author of the TSU study.
Jones told the Defender that only about one out of four current residents of the old TX-18 will remain in the new district for the primary elections, a level of turnover that will be disorienting even for frequent voters.
“It’s going to be very confusing for voters because what it results in is that virtually all of the current TX-9 voters are going to find themselves now in other districts,” Jones said.
‘Dying communities’ and unmet needs
In the Fifth Ward, the consequences of losing a consistent congressional advocate have been tangible. Tara Caro, a resident of TX-18, said voters have gone nearly a year without someone able to respond to everyday quality-of-life issues.
“One of the issues has been the dumping and the trash pickup around Fifth Ward,” Caro explained. “In a community like this, it’s the little things. Communities that are dying…historic Black communities. Sheila Jackson Lee would, if you called her, come out and look at what you’re talking about with the illegal dumping, or she would have someone come, even if she was in Washington, D.C. Sylvester Turner acted the same way, although unfortunately, he wasn’t in for too long.”
For residents, the absence of representation intersected with deeper anxieties about displacement and gentrification.
Many seniors in these neighborhoods live on fixed incomes, making them vulnerable as property values and taxes rise.
“If you’re only getting $1,600 a month, but then you have to pay $23,000 in mortgage or rent…Without someone in Congress saying, ‘My district is 75% elderly on fixed income,’ we will have these developments coming in, trying to buy out our seniors’ homes,” Wilson added.
A map shaped by shifting legal ground
The TSU report situated these experiences within a broader legal and political shift.
Republican lawmakers pursued the 2025 redistricting after federal court decisions weakened protections for “coalition districts,” areas where Black and Latino voters together formed a majority under previous interpretations of the Voting Rights Act
Jones explained that in earlier redistricting cycles, legislators believed they were constrained from breaking up those coalitions. That changed after recent court rulings, opening the door to more aggressive partisan remapping
While the state has argued that race was not explicitly used in drawing the new maps, the outcome disagrees.
TX-18 now has a majority Black voting-age population, while TX-9 and TX-29 were reshaped into districts with Hispanic pluralities or slim majorities.
Turnout risks in a primary-driven system
The report also underscores a critical reality for Houston voters. In 9 out of 10 local congressional districts, the primary election effectively determines the winner.
Yet, Democratic primary turnout in Texas has consistently lagged behind Republican participation, a gap that researchers say weakens representation in districts reshaped by redistricting.
Community leaders say the confusion caused by shifting district lines threatens to further suppress turnout, especially among seniors and residents who already feel disconnected from the political process.
“But these votes count,” Caro said. “We really need the people to get out there and exercise their rights because that’s put a true hindrance.”
What does the report say?
- Texas’ 2025 redistricting was driven by a political goal to increase Republican U.S. House seats by five, shifting the delegation from 25 Republican and 13 Democratic seats to a targeted 30 Republican and 8 Democratic seats.
- The map was passed during a special legislative session after a Democratic quorum break, signed into law in August 2025, and later allowed to take effect by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Houston districts were among the most radically altered in Texas
Three Houston-area districts, TX-9, TX-18, and TX-29, were fundamentally reconfigured:
- Only 3% of residents in the new TX-9 lived in the old TX-9
- Only 26% of residents in the new TX-18 lived in the old TX-18
- Only 37% of residents in the new TX-29 lived in the old TX-29
Most elections will be decided in the primaries, not in November
- 23 of 38 districts have a Republican advantage of 20+ points, making GOP general election wins nearly guaranteed.
- Eight districts have a Democratic advantage of 20+ points, making Democratic wins nearly guaranteed.
- Only seven districts statewide are remotely competitive in November 2026.
In Houston specifically, 9 of 10 districts are functionally decided in party primaries, not general elections.
TX-9 is the only Houston district with real general-election competition
- TX-9 has an 11-point Republican baseline advantage, making it Republican-leaning but not a lock.
- All other Houston districts are structurally safe for one party.
TX-9 becomes the only true battleground district in Houston for the November 2026 election.
Black political power is concentrated but protected in TX-18
- TX-18 is one of only two districts in Texas where Black voters are a majority of the CVAP (50.5%).
- Black voters also make up 64% of Democratic primary voters in TX-18, making it structurally possible for Black voters to elect candidates of their choice.
TX-18 remains a core Black political power district despite redistricting.
Turnout is extremely low in decisive elections
- Fewer than one in five registered voters statewide participated in the March 2022 and March 2024 party primary elections.
- In Houston, turnout ranges from:
- Republican primary: 3%-15%
- Democratic primary: 4%-13%
