The race to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner in Texas’ 18th Congressional District is shaping up to be one of Houston’s most competitive contests in years and one driven squarely by civil rights.
A new poll by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston shows Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former City Council member Amanda Edwards leading a crowded field heading into the Nov. 4 special election.
Menefee draws support from 27% of likely voters, with Edwards close behind at 23%.
State Representative Jolanda Jones stands in third place at 15%, while all other candidates remain in the single digits. These include Republican candidate Carmen Maria Montiel (6%), independent candidate George Foreman IV (4%), Gen-Z Democrat Isaiah Martin (4%), and Republicans Carter Page (3%), Ronald Whitfield (2%), and Theodis Daniel (1%).
Meanwhile, 2% of voters are divided among the seven other candidates, and 13% remain undecided.
With no candidate near the 50% mark required to win outright, an early 2026 runoff appears inevitable.
A district in transition
Long considered the heart of Houston’s Black political power, TX-18 has historically delivered wide margins for Democrats, a reality reinforced in the survey. The seven Democratic candidates collectively earn 70% support among likely voters, compared with only 12% for Republicans.
The district is also demographically distinct, where 43% of likely voters are Black, 39% white, and 14% Latino.
Women make up more than half the likely voters, with a majority being over the age of 55, signaling the powerful influence of older Black women at the ballot box.
Still, even in a Democratic stronghold, support is far from monolithic. Jones trails Menefee and Edwards significantly among white voters, but among Black voters, the three candidates are in a near dead heat: 30% for Menefee, 25% for Edwards, and 24% for Jones.
Education also emerges as a dividing line. College-educated voters strongly favor Menefee and Edwards over Jones, while among those without a four-year degree, the three are essentially tied.
Runoff matchups and favorability advantage
Pollsters tested three hypothetical two-person runoff scenarios.
Menefee holds narrow leads over both Edwards and Jones. Edwards, meanwhile, leads Jones by a similar margin.
Those dynamics are reflected in how voters view the candidates personally.
Both Edwards and Menefee hold very strong favorability ratings, with low negatives and relatively few voters unsure. Jones remains well-known but more polarizing: 51% have a favorable view, while 29% hold an unfavorable view.
Republicans, for their part, appear divided and under-recognized. Carmen Maria Montiel, the leading GOP candidate, polls at just 6% and nearly seven out of 10 voters say they do not know enough about her to form an opinion.
Even in a theoretical runoff, the Democratic nominee would start with an overwhelming advantage: 67% of voters say they would support whichever Democrat makes the final round over Montiel.
Civil rights driving turnout
Civil rights and civil liberties dominate the political landscape of the 18th Congressional District.
When asked about the most important issue facing the country, 44% of voters, by far the largest share, cite civil rights, far outpacing jobs and the economy (13%), health care (12%), and inflation (11%).
That priority is even more pronounced among the bases of the leading candidates. Majorities of Menefee, Jones, Edwards, and Martin’s supporters rank civil rights first.
Familiar Democratic allies
While TX-18 is gaining new candidates, longtime Democratic figures continue to earn respect. With the redistricting measures being implemented next year, Congressman Al Green’s TX-9 will overlap significantly with TX-19.
Even in that scenario, Green holds a 72% favorability rating, including 89% among Democrats, the highest of any official measured. Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia also scores strongly.
Republicans Dan Crenshaw and Wesley Hunt, by contrast, receive unfavorable ratings among a majority of these voters, a sharp reminder of the partisan alignment in the district.
