A new poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs reveals a sharply divided field in the race to represent Texas’ 18th Congressional District. Voters remain largely undecided and unfamiliar with the crowded candidate slate ahead of the November 4th special election.
According to the survey, Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards are tied at the top with 19% each, while Republican Carmen Maria Montiel and Democrat Jolanda Jones follow closely behind at 14%.
Despite the high-profile nature of the contest, triggered by Congressman Sylvester Turner’s death, more than one in four likely voters (27%) remain undecided. And even the most recognizable names still face name recognition challenges in the district, which has long been a Democratic stronghold.
A snapshot of the electorate
The demographic breakdown of likely voters provides critical context.
The survey electorate is 42% Black, 38% white, 16% Latino and 4% others. Women make up 56% of likely voters and 62% of respondents are 55 years or older, 68% hold a college degree, and 62% identify as Democrats, compared to 21% Republicans and 14% Independents.
Favorability gaps
Edwards leads the field in name recognition and net favorability, with 43% of voters expressing a favorable view and only 13% viewing her unfavorably. Menefee follows closely with a 40%-10% favorable-to-unfavorable ratio.
“With such a tight split among the top candidates, the race may come down to which candidate is best able to turn out her or his supporters,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School and one of the principal investigators on the project.
Jones, a former Houston City Council member and state representative, has a more mixed profile: 38% favorable, 27% unfavorable, the highest negative rating among the top six candidates. Meanwhile, Montiel, the lone Republican, is still largely unknown. Although she garners 14% of likely votes, largely from GOP voters, 78% of respondents said they don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
Independent candidate George Foreman IV (22% favorable, 11% unfavorable) and Democrat Isaiah Martin (16% favorable, 12% unfavorable) are even further behind in both recognition and support.
Notably, over 75% of undecided voters said they didn’t know enough about any of the six candidates to form an opinion, highlighting a significant opportunity and challenge for campaigns to increase visibility and voter education in the final stretch.
“The top three Democratic candidates had overall fairly strong favorability ratings, but the number of voters who said they don’t know enough to have an opinion about even the best-known candidates remains high,” said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. “That presents an opportunity for the race to shift.”
Demographic splits
When the results are broken down by subgroup, clear trends emerge:
- Black voters split their support relatively evenly among Menefee (24%), Edwards (21%) and Jones (21%). Montiel trails with just 5%.
- White voters show a more even split between Montiel (21%), Menefee (19%) and Edwards (18%), with Jones pulling only 7%.
- Latino voters lean slightly toward Montiel (21%) and Edwards (14%), but are also the most undecided, with 38% unsure.
- Voters under 35 are the least engaged, with 61% undecided. Only 2% of this age group support Edwards, and 9% support Menefee or Montiel.
- College-educated voters favor Menefee (24%) and Edwards (21%) over Jones (10%).
- Voters without a college degree show higher support for Jones (20%) and Montiel (16%).
Among Democrats, Menefee, Edwards and Jones are nearly tied, each garnering between 21% and 24% of support, while Montiel receives zero support from this group. Conversely, Montiel dominates the Republican vote with 62%, while 21% of GOP voters remain undecided.
The numbers also indicate Montiel’s support is primarily driven by partisan loyalty rather than personal familiarity: More than half of her supporters (56%) say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
Runoff is all but certain, but who makes it?
With no candidate approaching even a quarter of the vote, the likelihood of a January or February 2026 runoff is nearly guaranteed, per the study. The top two vote-getters will face off in what will likely be a high-stakes and high-dollar contest to shape the future of Texas’ most historically Black congressional district.
At this stage, campaigns face a critical window to boost name recognition, define their platforms, and motivate turnout among a highly educated and disengaged electorate.
As the election approaches, voter outreach, debates, endorsements and advertising could significantly reshape the standings. The race for TX-18 remains wide open, with everything still to play for.
