Texas will continue to grow through 2060, albeit at a slower pace, and it will become noticeably older as migration overtakes births as the primary driver of population change.
That is the picture from the Texas Demographic Center’s new population Projections report, says.
Dr. Xiuhong “Helen” You, Associate Director and Senior Demographer at the TDC, has divided the state and all 254 counties into categories of low, mid and high migration scenarios.
“We project that natural change will slow down, and at some point, maybe around 2050, we actually may see natural decline when we will have more deaths than births in Texas,” You said. “In terms of migration, we’ll see a slight increase in both the net domestic migration and net international migration. We also have learned from our calculations and these models that with the decline of births and increase of deaths, migration will be the main source of driving Texas’ growth.”
42.6 million Texans by 2060
Under the mid-scenario, Texas is projected to reach 42.6 million residents by 2060, an increase of more than 12 million from its 2020 population. The report projects Texas will grow under all migration scenarios, but at a slower pace over time.
All major racial and ethnic groups are projected to increase in size, except for white people, whose population is expected to decline. Hispanics gain the most people, and Asians grow at the fastest rate, reflecting long-standing fertility and migration patterns.
Texas shifts from “aging” to “ultra-aged”
The population aged 65 and above is the fastest-growing group. Texas moves from 13.5% age 65+ in 2020 (“aging”) to 21.7% by 2060 (“ultra-aged”).
The under-18 population grows slowly and then begins to decline, while the working-age share (18–64) remains relatively stable, which is critical for employers, planners, and schools calibrating long-term capacity. Texans can expect increased demand for geriatric care and age-friendly infrastructure in both urban and rural areas of Texas.
Where growth concentrates
Metro areas will dominate. Current MSA counties account for nearly 99% of statewide growth through 2060. Within that, the Texas Triangle (DFW, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston) will expand its share from 67% to 74%.
The suburban rings around these core counties post the fastest percentage growth, while 139 counties, largely rural, are expected to lose population.
Why the curve bends: births down, deaths up, migration matters
The projections are built with a standard cohort-component model: start with the 2020 Census baseline, then add projected births, subtract deaths, and add migration for each age-sex-race cohort. Several forces shift the balance.
Fertility has fallen below replacement, and delayed childbearing has spread across groups. Texas’ total fertility rate dropped through 2020, and the model assumes low, gradually stabilizing fertility with age-specific rates converging toward national patterns (with a distinct path for Asian Texans).
“We notice that different groups of people have different patterns of uh fertility. Fertility level in non-Hispanic Black… the peak starts earlier than non-Hispanic white, although the peak is lower,” You said. “Hispanics have an earlier peak and also a higher and non-Hispanic Asian peak later, but peak a little higher. Although Asians have a very high peak, the group has the lowest fertility and the smallest area under that curve among all the races and ethnic groups. In contrast, the non-Hispanic white also has a lower fertility in general.”
Longevity improves, especially at older ages, increasing the share of individuals aged 65 and above. The Center applies U.S. life-expectancy projections, adjusted to Texas’ level, to build survival curves forward.
Migration becomes the driver. Natural increase (births minus deaths) slows and may tip to natural decline around mid-century. Both domestic and international migration will contribute to Texas’ population growth, albeit at a slower pace over time.
Patterns can appear counterintuitive in fast-changing metropolitan areas. For example, a large central county may show net domestic outflow to its suburbs yet still grow if international inflows offset those losses. The TDC team emphasized that projections reflect recent decade patterns. If a county’s migration trend materially changes, future projections will be adjusted accordingly.
