Texas, historically a Republican stronghold, has become a focal point of national political discourse as Democrats aim to flip the state in the upcoming presidential election. With its 38 electoral votes, Texas is a coveted prize, but is it realistic for Democrats to expect a victory in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Jimmy Carter in 1976? Recent polling data, shifts in voter enthusiasm, and demographic changes suggest the race is closer than ever, raising questions about whether Texas could indeed turn blue.
Could it happen?
Depends on who you ask. The Lone Star State isn’t considered a swing state, having voted for a Republican candidate in the previous 11 elections, including for Trump in 2016 and 2020. President Joe Biden, however, did narrow the gap in Texas to just 5.6 points, the closest presidential race in the state since 1996.
Despite the long history of backing Republicans in presidential, senate and governor races, there have been continuing suggestions that Texas could be on the verge of an unprecedented switch in voter dynamic.
Not only did Biden close the presidential gap in 2020, but former Texas Democratic Representative Beto O’Rourke was only narrowly beaten by incumbent Republican Ted Cruz in the 2018 Senate race
Polls have also indicated that Cruz could have another tight reelection fight this year against Representative Colin Allred, who is hoping to be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas state since 1988.
How close is it?
The last presidential election in Texas saw former President Donald Trump winning the state by a margin of 52% to 46% over now-President Joe Biden. While this six-point gap may seem comfortable, it was one of the narrowest victories for a Republican presidential candidate in Texas in decades, hinting at a growing Democratic base in the state. This momentum is further highlighted by the results of a new statewide poll conducted by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
According to the poll, which surveyed registered voters across Texas in late August, the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical head-to-head contest is tightening. Trump leads Harris by just five points, 49% to 44%, a slight improvement for Democrats from June when Biden trailed Trump 46% to 39%. These numbers signal that Democrats are gaining ground, but the question remains whether they can close the gap further before November.
Democrat Enthusiasm on the Rise
One of the key factors fueling optimism for Democrats is the surge in voter enthusiasm. The same Texas Politics Project poll shows a significant increase in Democratic enthusiasm compared to earlier in the summer. Nearly 80% of Democrats expressed enthusiasm about voting in the upcoming election, with 52% stating they are “extremely” enthusiastic and 27% “very” enthusiastic. This represents a marked increase from June when 61% of Democrats were enthusiastic, with 39% reporting they were “extremely” excited to vote.
“The Democratic National Convention appears to have energized Democratic voters in Texas,” wrote pollsters James Henson and Joshua Blank. “These results represent an increase in both the degree and intensity of Democratic enthusiasm.” The uptick in Democratic engagement is crucial in a state where voter turnout has historically been lower than the national average, particularly among younger and minority voters who tend to lean Democratic.
In contrast, Republican enthusiasm has slightly waned. According to the poll, 73% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in November, down from 77% in June. Only 49% of GOP voters said they were “extremely” enthusiastic, compared to 55% earlier in the year. While Republican voters still outnumber Democrats in Texas, this enthusiasm gap could prove decisive if Democrats can mobilize their base and turn out voters in record numbers.
Favorability Shifts and Key Races
In addition to enthusiasm, favorability ratings for key political figures in Texas have shifted following the conventions. Vice President Harris, who was viewed unfavorably by a majority of Texas voters in June, saw an improvement in her favorability ratings. In August, 45% of respondents viewed Harris favorably, compared to 46% who viewed her unfavorably. Among Texas Democrats, Harris’ favorability surged from 71% favorable in June to 87% in August.
Former President Trump also saw an improvement in his favorability ratings, particularly among Republicans. In August, 88% of Texas Republicans viewed Trump favorably, including 62% who held a “very favorable” view of him. This represents a peak in Trump’s favorability among Texas Republicans, fueled in part by sympathy following the failed assassination attempt on the former president earlier this year.
However, while Trump maintains strong support among Republicans, some down-ballot races offer a glimmer of hope for Democrats. In the race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz leads his Democratic challenger, U.S. Representative Colin Allred, by eight points, 44% to 36%. This is a narrower margin than Cruz’s previous 11-point lead in June, suggesting that Allred is gaining traction as the election draws closer.
Is It Realistic for Texas to Turn Blue?
Turning Texas blue is no small feat, given its Republican dominance over the past three decades. No Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the state has consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates since 1980. However, demographic shifts, including a growing Hispanic population and an influx of younger, more liberal voters into urban areas, have gradually changed the state’s political landscape.
One of the most significant challenges Democrats face in Texas is translating enthusiasm into votes. Texas has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country, and despite growing Democratic support, many eligible voters remain unregistered or disengaged. The last day to register to vote in Texas is October 7, and Democrats will need to focus on voter registration efforts and turnout initiatives to have a chance at flipping the state.
Early voting in Texas begins on October 21, and Democrats are banking on a strong early voting turnout to gain an edge. The party has invested heavily in grassroots organizing and digital campaigns, particularly targeting young voters and communities of color. Meanwhile, Republicans are relying on their traditional base of older, rural, and suburban voters to maintain their grip on the state.
hose views track with a recent Texas Trends survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University showing that Harris and Trump are nearly tied among Latino voters, with Trump carrying a slight edge. In the U.S. Senate race between Congressman Colin Allred and Sen. Ted Cruz, however, the same survey shows 46% of Latino voters intend to vote for Allred, compared to 40% for Cruz.
Mark Jones is one of the survey’s authors. He says it’s working class immigrants like Vazquez who have lived in the country for years and are registered to vote that are increasingly turning out for Trump.
“Historically, Republicans in Texas have won 35 to 40% of the Latino vote, but that’s been inching up where Republicans are increasingly deadlocked with Democrats for Latinos’ voter support,” Jones said.
Joshua Blank, the researcher at UT Austin, said it’s not likely that Texas will go for Harris this election.
“It’s not impossible to imagine Democrats winning an election here in Texas at some time in the not too distant future,” Blank said.
The circumstances, he said, would have to align just right for the state to turn blue.
The Road Ahead
While Democrats have reason to be optimistic, the road to flipping Texas is still an uphill battle. Republican strongholds in rural and suburban areas continue to provide a reliable base of support for GOP candidates, and Trump’s popularity among Texas Republicans remains formidable. Additionally, Democrats will need to overcome significant structural challenges, including restrictive voting laws and gerrymandered districts that favor Republicans.
Nevertheless, the latest poll numbers and enthusiasm surge among Texas Democrats suggest that the state is more competitive than it has been in decades. Whether this momentum can carry the party across the finish line remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Texas is no longer a guaranteed win for Republicans.
In the words of pollsters Henson and Blank, “Texas is in play, but it will take a concerted effort from Democrats to turn out their base and convert the growing enthusiasm into votes. The race is closer than it’s ever been, but Texas remains a deeply divided state where every vote will count.”
With early voting set to begin in just over a month, all eyes will be on Texas as Democrats push to flip the state, and Republicans fight to hold onto their stronghold. The outcome of the race could have far-reaching implications, not only for the state but for the future of American politics.
