The race to fill Texas’s 18th Congressional District seat is shaping up to be one of Houston’s most pivotal and unpredictable elections in years.
The seat, vacant since the March 5 passing of Congressman Sylvester Turner, has left roughly 800,000 residents without federal representation for nearly eight months before the November 2025 special election decides who takes office.
But the urgency of the moment isn’t the only factor fueling conversation across the district. It’s also the size of the race. Sixteen candidates—seven Democrats, five Republicans, three Independents, and one Green Party member—are vying to represent a district that has historically been anchored in Black political leadership, dating back to Barbara Jordan’s first election to the seat in 1973.
Some voters worry that such a crowded field could split the Democratic vote and open the door for a Republican upset. Others argue that the diversity of choices is a hallmark of democracy in action.
Crowded field, high stakes
“I first announced my bid to serve the people of the 18th Congressional District on Juneteenth of 2023,” said Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Councilmember. “I’m focused on the 800,000 people of the 18th Congressional District who have gone without their voice and advocate for federal funding for what will be 18 months over a two-year span.”
For State Rep. Jolanda Jones, the size of the race is part of the democratic process.
“Any eligible person should be allowed to run if they want to. I’m not afraid of a large field, and I trust the voters,” said Jones, who, along with Edwards and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, makes up the three Democrats named as frontrunners by a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey.
A fourth candidate mentioned was Carmen Montiel, a Republican.
Menefee sees competition as a test of leadership.
“When I ran in 2020 against a three-term incumbent, we debated the issues, sharpened our values, and I won with 50% of the vote,” said Menefee. “That taught me how to run a strong campaign, how to be strategic, and how to fight hard for people.”
Younger candidate Isaiah Martin says the field highlights the high stakes.
“It shows how important this moment is and how big the shoes are to fill,” shared Martin. “Our campaign is the one breaking through because we’re bringing grassroots energy to build something bigger than politics-as-usual.”
Yet, community leaders like Joetta Stevenson, president of the Greater Fifth Ward Super Neighborhood #55, are frustrated.
“Splitting the vote and siphoning support from viable candidates absolutely places CD18 at risk—especially if the Republican base turns out in high numbers.”
– Joetta Stevenson, president of the Greater Fifth Ward Super Neighborhood #55
“Only about five candidates have ever bothered to come ask us what we needed. Too many candidates, too little effort,” said Stevenson.
Carroll Robinson, former City Councilman and TSU professor, noted, “An open congressional seat doesn’t happen often—especially one as historic as CD18. So, it’s expected that a lot of people would run when there’s no incumbent.”
Why so many candidates?
According to Dr. Michael O. Adams, political science professor at TSU, the special election format itself is part of the reason.
“There’s no primary process to narrow the field,” said Adams. “Everyone from all parties goes straight onto the same ballot. That removes the gatekeeping that usually prevents massive pile-ups.”
He adds that the district’s legacy also plays a role.
“This is the seat held by Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, and Sheila Jackson Lee. It’s one of the most symbolically important Black congressional districts in the country, created after the Voting Rights Act to ensure minority representation in Houston,” said Adams. “A lot of ambitious politicians see this as their one shot.”
Another factor, Adams noted, is uncertainty about the district’s future.
“With Republicans redrawing boundaries mid-decade, some candidates may think, ‘This could be my only window,’ because by next year, the political landscape could look completely different.”
Could a Republican win?
Menefee, who has taken on President Donald Trump and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in court and won, is blunt about the Republicans’ chances of winning the seat.
“Let’s be clear—this is a 70% Democratic seat,” said Menefee. “A Republican has no shot at winning it. The only way they could make the runoff is if they had one strong candidate with serious fundraising and party consolidation. That’s not what we’re seeing.”
Jones agrees.
“Even though there are 16 candidates, there’s a top tier of three Democrats and one Republican. There’s no way a Republican can win outright,” said Jones, who made national news during the State Democratic Representatives’ quorum break to protest state GOP redistricting efforts. “This is an overwhelmingly Democratic district.”
Martin asserts Democratic disengagement is the bigger danger.
“Every voter I talk to has zero patience for Republicans, especially not anyone cozying up to Trump,” said Martin. “The real risk isn’t an overcrowded field—it’s Democrats running the same old playbook and losing people who should be with us.”
Former candidate Rain Eatmon, who dropped out earlier this year, said the size of the race did influence her decision.
“I didn’t want to run just for the sake of the seat. Oversaturation was a factor,” she said. “I wanted to make sure District 18 had the best representation possible.”
Robinson insists, “The size of the field will not open the door to a Republican because Democrats have consolidated behind two to three candidates.”
Adams agrees.
“It’s highly unlikely. District 18 is one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state. The real competition isn’t between parties—it’s within the Democratic Party itself,” said Adams.
Still, Stevenson cautions against complacency.
“Splitting the vote and siphoning support from viable candidates absolutely places CD18 at risk—especially if the Republican base turns out in high numbers,” said Stevenson.
The turnout factor
Turnout could be the real deciding factor.
“Low voter turnout opens the door to any of the top three candidates to make the runoff,” said Robinson.
Adams added, “When participation drops to 10%, it stops being about broad appeal and starts being about who can actually get people to the polls. Ground game, organization, and name recognition become everything.”
He noted that older Black voters have historically been the most consistent participants in low-turnout elections—but confusion over redistricting may further dampen their engagement.
“A lot of voters aren’t sure which district they’ll be in next year, and that uncertainty depresses turnout,” shared Adams.
“I’m praying for a groundswell of voters who’ve paid attention to the work these candidates have done beyond current campaign rhetoric and drama,” said Stevenson, who is hoping for a late voter surge.
Eaton, who is excited by a large field of candidates, hopes to see something beyond voter turnout on Nov. 4.
“I hope that every single candidate shows up on Nov. 5 and every day afterwards,” said Eatmon. “We are at a very pivotal point in our country, and we need as many servant leaders as possible to make sure all corners of the 18th and Houston are served and represented.
How to help maximize voter turnout
- Educate others – Share clear, accurate information about the special election and who’s on the ballot.
- Host a voting circle – Gather friends, church members, or neighbors to make a plan to vote together.
- Volunteer for GOTV efforts – Join local organizations canvassing or phone banking to increase turnout.
