Fort Bend County, a diverse suburban stretch on the southwest of Houston, is shaping up to be a Democratic stronghold in November, according to a survey conducted by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center.
The poll, taken by 1,200 likely voters, found that Democrats are leading the county judge race and in all three statewide seats.
The County Judge race
Dexter McCoy, the former Fort Bend County commissioner who is now running for the county judge seat, holds a lead over Republican Daniel Wong.
Wong is now the interim county judge.
But neither candidate is well known, as voters responded that they do not know enough about McCoy or Wong to form an opinion.
However, McCoy is viewed slightly more favorably than Wong in the survey.
Among racial demographics, McCoy leads with Black voters by a large margin, while Wong leads white voters. Latino and Asian voters are split, with Wong ahead among both groups.
Statewide races tilt left
The statewide races show a similar trend, tilting toward Democrats.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by an 18-point margin.
In the gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa leads incumbent Republican Greg Abbott by 11 points.
In the Railroad Commissioner race, Democrat Jon Rosenthal leads Republican Bo French by 15 points. But these candidates have the lowest name recognition of any other races.
Overall, Fort Bend has long leaned to the Democratic side when compared to Texas as a whole.
In 2022, Beto O’Rourke carried Fort Bend by nearly five points against Abbott in the governor’s race, while Abbott won statewide.
In 2024, Democrat Colin Allred beat Ted Cruz by more than seven points in this county.
The survey indicates the margins are wider this year.
“Among these November 2026 Fort Bend County likely voters, President Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 60%…”
Texas Southern University report
Voters here trust local elections
The survey takers expressed confidence in the electoral process in the county, with a majority saying the elections will be conducted fairly.
They also believe that county election officials will be efficient in counting votes accurately, keeping voting systems secure, ensuring voters can cast ballots, and preventing ineligible voters from voting.
But many county officials remain largely unknown to voters, including Sheriff Eric Fagan, District Attorney Brian Middleton and County Attorney Bridgette Smith-Lawson, although they received favorability among those who know them.
Meanwhile, Commissioners McCoy, Grady Prestage, Vincent Morales, and Andy Meyers have positive ratings within their respective precincts.
While McCoy is running for the Fort Bend County Judge race, Prestage is seeking another term as the commissioner of Precinct 2.
Suspended County Judge KP George received the largest number of unfavorable responses (70% viewed him negatively).
President Donald Trump is also viewed unfavorably by 60% of Fort Bend’s likely voters.
With Election Day weeks away, the poll suggests Democrats hold a comfortable advantage in Fort Bend, although the large undecided share in the county judge and Railroad Commissioner races leaves room for movement, per the report.
