A new survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs finds Texas’s marquee November races tightly contested, with Democrat James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters between Oct. 10 and 14.

Across Texas, these races will determine where voter sentiment lies, but the outcomes vary depending on the candidate and the political party they represent.

A majority of those surveyed by the University of Houston believe that the country and Texas are headed “in the wrong direction”. They also hold an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump.

Talarico vs. Paxton

James Talarico narrowly leads Ken Paxton as Texas voters weigh closely contested statewide races. Credit: James Talarico and Ken Paxton

In the Texas U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by two percentage points (48%-46%). Taking a closer look at their supporters, Democrats overwhelmingly support Talarico, while a majority of Republican voters support Paxton.

Also, Talarico leads among women, younger voters, Black voters, Latinos, and urban residents, while Paxton performs better among men, older voters, white voters, and rural Texans. In this race, independent voters could play a decisive role.

Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46%.

Other factors

Political affiliation and views of national leadership continue to shape the state’s electoral landscape. Credit: Getty Images

The survey indicates that Trump remains a central factor in the Senate contest. 

A majority of Paxton supporters describe their vote as a vote for Trump. Among Talarico supporters, most say their vote is in opposition to the president.

Trump’s favorability rating among likely Texas voters stands at 46%, while 54% view him unfavorably, according to the survey.

Voter dissatisfaction extends beyond the president.

Despite that dissatisfaction, Republicans maintain leads in other statewide contests.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin, while Republican Mayes Middleton holds an identical advantage over Democrat Nathan Johnson in the attorney general race.

In the comptroller contest, Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt.

Republican Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham also leads Democratic challenger Benjamin Flores.

Republican Nate Sheets leads Democrat Clayton Tucker in the agriculture commissioner race.

One of the closest down-ballot contests is for railroad commissioner, where Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by two percentage points.

Limited familiarity with candidates

The survey also highlights limited voter familiarity with several down-ballot candidates.

Seven out of 10 respondents said they did not know enough about multiple candidates to offer a favorable or unfavorable assessment.

But most voters said they were either very or somewhat confident that the November election would be conducted fairly and accurately.

Meanwhile, others expressed confidence that U.S. citizens who want to vote would be able to do so.

The survey found broad support for several election policies, including requiring photo identification at polling places, automatically registering U.S. citizens to vote, and allowing any eligible voter to vote by mail.

I cover education, housing, and politics in Houston for the Houston Defender Network as a Report for America corps member. I graduated with a master of science in journalism from the University of Southern...