COVID-19 cases are, once again, on the rise in Texas based on testing and results data.

One week ago, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner posted a tweet celebrating the 5% positivity rate in Houston.

Since then, it has increased to 5.6%. It’s a slight increase, but health officials said they believe the city is on the verge of another surge.

“The nature of exponential growth of an infection is it starts off very slow, and as you get into the multiplier effect, it enters the steep phase, and by the time you’re in the steep phase, it’s too late,” explained Dr. James McDeavitt, the dean of clinical affairs for the Baylor College of Medicine. “So, we have to be a little bit cautious now.”

McDeavitt attributes the virus increase to mask fatigue, changing weather and businesses getting more crowded.

Both he and Dr. David Persse, the chief medical officer for the Houston Health Department, agree that the next wave can be stopped if people practice social distancing and wear face masks.

“At this point, most people in southeast Texas understand the rules set by the virus,” Dr. Persse said. “Let’s face it, we can talk about what the judge says, what the governor says and the mayor and president can say. It is really the virus [that] is setting the rules.”