With early voting for the March 3 primary already underway, a massive block of undecided voters could hold the keys to Harris County’s political future. New data from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs reveals that while some frontrunners have emerged, a wave of “unsure” ballots, as high as 82% in some races, could trigger a series of May runoffs.
The surveys, which targeted likely primary voters based on their participation in the 2022 and 2024 cycles, paint a picture of an electorate that is engaged but deeply divided or still doing its homework.
Brandon Rottinghaus, associate professor of political science at the University of Houston, said primaries tend to bring out the “most committed voters” rather than a broad and representative sample of voters.
“It’s a very different type of voter who votes in a primary than in a general election,” Rottinghaus said. “If you have more people voting in primaries, then you would certainly see a change in terms of who gets nominated. The undecideds and non-voters have got a significant say in the process if they choose to participate.”
He added there could be runoffs for the Republican races, but not for the Democratic ones, “given the nature of the kind of candidates running.”
U.S. Senate: Close Democratic Contest in Harris County
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate among Harris County voters, Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico 45% to 43%, with 1% supporting Ahmad Hassan and 11% undecided.
Support splits sharply by race.
Talarico leads among White and Latino voters, while Crockett holds a substantial lead among Black voters.
At the statewide level, Harris County voters will play a role in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary.
Among likely Harris County GOP primary voters, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leads with 32%, ahead of Ken Paxton at 27% and Wesley Hunt at 25%.
The Senate race features clearer frontrunners than county-level contests, though support varies across demographic groups.
“On the Democratic side, there aren’t enough candidates in the Senate race for it to probably push a runoff,” Rottinghaus said. “You’ve got two top-tier candidates…one of them is likely to win outright.
“This [seat] has become a national race. So it’s going to generate a lot of enthusiasm and attention, and especially money. The balance of power in the Senate is hanging on whether Texas turns blue. If Texas turns blue, then the Senate could very well be in control by the Democrats.”
Congressional District 18: Menefee holds small lead
In the Democratic primary for Texas’ 18th Congressional District (new), Congressman Christian Menefee leads Congressman Al Green by seven percentage points (43% to 36%), with the remaining voters split between Amanda Edwards, Gretchen Brown and undecided voters.
The UH survey found that both candidates are well known and broadly viewed favorably, with 80% likely Democratic primary voters viewing Menefee favorably, compared to 79% for Green.
Who are the voters?
Race:
- Black likely voters: 62% of the population of Democratic primary likely voters
- White likely voters: 22%
- Latino likely voters: 10%
- Others: 4%
Gender:
- Women: 62%
- Men: 38%
Age:
- Age 55 and older: 65%
- Ages 35-54: 25%
- Ages 18-34: 10%
Education:
- With a four-year college degree: 43%
- Without a four-year college degree: 57%
Political leaning:
- Democrats: 76%
- Republicans: 3%
- Independents: 15%
- Others: 5%, unsure: 1%
Where they live now (the districts created by the Texas Legislature in 2021)
- CD-9: 64%
- CD-18: 28%
- CD-29: 6%
- CD-22, CD-7: 1%
The voters are also divided between two counties: Harris County (74%) and Fort Bend County (26%).
Congressional District 29: Garcia ahead, racial divides evident
In the Democratic primary for Congressional District 29, U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia leads former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson 46% to 27%, with 25% undecided and Robert Slater at 2%.
The poll shows stark differences by race.
Garcia leads Johnson among White and Latino voters. Johnson, however, leads Garcia among Black voters.
Garcia is viewed favorably by 70% of likely voters, while 45% have a favorable opinion of Johnson.
However, four out of 10 voters say they do not know enough about Johnson to form an opinion.
Who are the voters?
Race:
- Black likely voters: 43% of the population of Democratic primary likely voters
- White likely voters: 30%
- Latino likely voters: 24%
- Others: 3%
Gender:
- Women: 60%
- Men: 39%
Age:
- Age 55 and older: 64%
- Ages 35-54: 26%
- Ages 18-34: 10%
Education:
- With a four-year college degree: 40%
- Without a four-year college degree: 60%
Political leaning:
- Democrats: 71%
- Republicans: 6%
- Independents: 17%
- Others: 5%
- Unsure: 1%
Where they live now (the districts created by the Texas Legislature in 2021)
- CD-2: 4%
- CD-18: 74%
- CD-29: 24%
- CD-38: <1%
All likely voters live in Harris County.
Congressional District 9: Most voters undecided
The Democratic primary for Congressional District 9 remains wide open.
Six out of 10 likely voters say they are unsure whom they will support.
Leticia Gutierrez leads with 24%, followed by Terry Virts and Earnest Clayton at 5% each, Todd Ivey and Marty Rocha at 2% each, and Peter Filler at 1%.
Name recognition remains low across the field.
Nearly two-thirds of voters say they do not know enough about Gutierrez to have an opinion, and a majority (>80%) say the same about the other candidates.
Harris County: Democratic County Judge race
In the Harris County Democratic primary for county judge, former Houston Mayor Annise Parker leads Letitia Plummer 46% to 25%, with Matt Salazar at 5% and 24% undecided.
The race shows clear racial divides.
Parker leads among White and Latino voters, while Plummer leads among Black voters.
The survey also found that Parker is viewed favorably by 61% of likely voters, compared to 42% for Plummer.
On the Republican side, more than half the likely GOP primary voters remain undecided in the county judge race.
Orlando Sanchez leads with 21%, followed by Marty Lancton at 10% and Aliza Dutt at 7%.
Harris County: County Attorney and other races
The Democratic primary for Harris County attorney remains unsettled.
Six out of 10 likely voters are unsure, per the UH survey.
Abbie Kamin receives 26% support, and Audrie Lawton Evans 13%.
Large majorities say they do not know enough about either candidate to form an opinion.
Nearly eight in 10 voters are unsure whom to support in Democratic primaries. Credit: University of Houston
Uncertainty also dominates the Democratic primaries for the Harris County Democratic Party Chair and District Clerk.
Nearly eight out of 10 voters are unsure whom to vote for in these races.
The Republican primary for County Clerk shows a similar pattern. Two-thirds of likely voters are undecided. Mike Wolfe leads with 20%, while Lynda Sanchez receives 14%, indicating that the race remains fluid with significant room for movement.
In the races for Harris County Treasurer and Harris County Republican Party Chair, uncertainty looms large, with a majority of Republican primary voters unsure.
