James Talarico’s path to the U.S. Senate runs through a relationship he is still building: His standing with Black voters in Texas, a bloc that overwhelmingly backed his primary rival, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Democrats say the momentum could decide a close race against Republican Ken Paxton.
The numbers tell a mixed story. Recent polling from the Texas Politics Project put Talarico’s support among Black voters at 67%, well ahead of where Beto O’Rourke (45%) and Colin Allred (33%) stood at similar points in their own Senate runs in 2018 and 2024. Both of those candidates went on to win more than 80% of the Black vote by Election Day.
Can the seat be flipped?
Darrell Jordan, a U.S. Army veteran and former Harris County judge, pointed to Paxton’s record as an indication that there is a possibility for the seat to be flipped in November. He referred to Paxton being indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 and being impeached, then acquitted, in 2023.
“We can flip that seat because there are a lot of people who are upset with him, who do not support the things that he’s been accused of,” Jordan said. “If Talarico does his part, comes out to the African American community and all communities and asks for their vote specifically, I think this is the time that we can have a statewide seat.”
GOP Sen. Ted Cruz seems to agree. He said Talarico has a shot at flipping the Senate seat in November.
“Unfortunately, I do think he has a real chance,” Cruz told Gov. Greg Abbott, who guest-hosted Sean Hannity’s three-hour radio show. “I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close. I think we’re going to win, I think we’re going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race.”
Texas Politics Project research director Joshua Blank attributes Talarico’s stronger early numbers largely to name recognition, noting Democratic candidates in Texas typically spend much of a campaign simply introducing themselves to voters.
To top it off, Talarico has already raised a record-breaking $30 million in the second quarter of this year, according to his campaign. This is more than three times what Paxton’s campaign raised from April through June.
Prior battles
During the March primary, polls showed Talarico drawing under 10% support from Black voters in some surveys, with Crockett sweeping the counties with the largest Black populations by wide margins, nearly 60 points in Jefferson County alone.
The contest also grew racially charged, with accusations lobbed at Talarico’s campaign over attack ads questioning Crockett’s electability, and a controversy over Talarico allegedly calling Allred a “mediocre Black man.”
Since winning the nomination, Talarico has worked to close that distance.
He has visited historically Black colleges, including Paul Quinn College and Prairie View A&M University; rolled out a policy plan targeting Black maternal mortality; met with Black leaders in Dallas, Houston, and Austin; and picked up endorsements from figures who backed Crockett in the primary, such as Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis.
At the Texas Democratic Convention in Corpus Christi, Talarico told the party’s Black Caucus there was “no way to win this race without Black Texans,” and promised to “fight for the votes of every Black Texan.”
He opened his speech with a quote from Barbara Jordan, the first Black woman from Houston elected to Congress from the South.
“Barbara Jordan said, ‘I get from the soil and spirit of Texas the feeling that I, as an individual, can accomplish whatever I want to,’” Talarico said. “That there are no limits, that you could just keep going, just keep soaring. I like that spirit. Barbara Jordan felt that spirit of Texas in her bones. That’s the spirit that propelled her from the hells of Jim Crow to the halls of power. I feel that spirit unite in this room.”
The reception has been reserved. Black elected officials sent Talarico a letter pressing for a clearer outreach strategy.
Crockett herself has kept some distance. She expressed support for Talarico by endorsing him and a unified Democratic front after the primary, but has focused her campaigning on other races.